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Understanding the immediate impact of climate change requires that factors other than temperature be taken into account. Bayesian statistics addresses the complexity of the climate system by modeling the uncertainty inherent in relationships between the climate and other factors. The statistical model is dynamic, and it produces probabilistic forecasts of climate variables that includes the uncertainty in these forecasts. The model includes several dynamically varying explanatory variables that allow climate predictions to account for gradual and abrupt climate changes that could increase hurricane frequency and intensity.

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